Bitcoin (BTC) begins the week with heightened volatility as traders navigate a confluence of macroeconomic uncertainty and emerging on-chain signals that could foreshadow a bull market revival by fall.
1. Traders Eye September for Potential Bull Market Start
Despite BTC hovering near $62,000—its lowest level since Q3 2024—trader Ryker challenged conventional cycle theories in an X post, arguing that market makers may front-run widespread expectations of a 2027 bull run. "I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity," Ryker wrote, urging skepticism toward historical four-year cycle charts.
BTC one-week chart comparison. Source: Ryker/X
2. 'Death Cross' Forms Amid Mixed Technical Outlook
A bearish “death cross” has emerged on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, where the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 100-week SMA—a signal last seen in September 2022, months before the prior bear-market bottom. Trader Jelle interpreted this as a potential foundation for accumulation: “More and more signs confirming my belief that accumulation season is back.”
BTC one-week chart with 50, 100SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
However, other analysts remain cautious. Daan Crypto Trades noted BTC is rangebound between $61,000 and $65,000, while Lennaert Snyder suggested further downside to $57,800 would be “the most healthy scenario” given elevated funding rates and selling pressure.
3. Geopolitical Tensions Roil Markets
The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed by Iran over the weekend, reigniting US-Iran tensions and sending WTI crude oil prices up nearly 12% to $75 per barrel. The move pushed US 2-year Treasury yields above 2.35%—a 16-month high—raising concerns about prolonged higher interest rates, traditionally a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Still, analyst Michaël van de Poppe downplayed Middle East risks, pointing instead to Japanese bond yields and yen weakness as more relevant catalysts for BTC movement.
4. Critical US Inflation Data and Fed Testimony Ahead
This week brings pivotal macroeconomic releases: June CPI and PPI data, followed by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress. Markets currently price in no rate change until September, when a 25-basis-point hike is expected, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
US CPI 12-month % change. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
With inflation pressures potentially amplified by oil shocks, any surprise in CPI or PPI could trigger sharp moves across equities and crypto markets.
5. Midsize Hodlers Dump BTC at Multimonth Highs
On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC distributed approximately 67,000 BTC on July 13—the largest net outflow from this cohort since February. Historically, such distribution events have preceded price rebounds, suggesting current selling may mark a transitional phase rather than capitulation.
Bitcoin exchange inflow data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Notably, exchange inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime have cooled in mid-July, while short-term holders recently took profits near $64,000—a behavior often seen in early bull phases.