Bitcoin has traded below the cost basis of short-term holders for more than nine consecutive months, according to on-chain analytics firm Darkfost. This prolonged period of losses for recent buyers is a hallmark of bear market cycles, the firm noted.
The short-term holder cost basis—representing the average purchase price of coins held for less than 155 days—is currently around $70,700. This level has consistently acted as overhead resistance, preventing sustained upward price movement.
Darkfost highlighted May’s market action as a clear example of this dynamic: Bitcoin briefly rallied to approximately $82,000 to test the resistance zone before swiftly retreating, underscoring the selling pressure from investors looking to break even.
Historically, such extended periods below the short-term holder cost basis have preceded major market bottoms, suggesting that investor capitulation may still be underway.